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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 10, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL1111607224
VAN27215016438

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:09VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Shane O'Brien · Wrap-around, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:37ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:38VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Steve Bernier · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:39VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
  5. P2 4:51VANMason RaymondAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–4
  6. P2 14:25ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Zach Bogosian, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 8:14VANRick Rypien: Roughing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:06VANMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
  3. P1 16:06VANMathieu Schneider: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 9:04ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 9:04VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 19:39ATLBoris Valabik: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 6:36VANMathieu Schneider: Delaying game2 min
  8. P3 14:06ATLBoris Valabik: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 14:06VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 15:10ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 15:10VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 16:42ATLRich Peverley: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 0:00ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLVAN
24Shots on goal38
1.9Expected goals3.0
33Shot attempts60
24Faceoffs won33
4Power plays2
26Penalty minutes20
12Hits11
10Blocked shots5
2Giveaways3
2Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.0 xGATL 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #703 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).