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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 11, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Florida Panthers 4, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Florida Panthers

4

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.

NJD winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA1421315422
NJD0911118228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:53FLAJordan LeopoldAssists: Nathan Horton, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:24FLAMichael FrolikPPAssists: Keith Ballard, Stephen Weiss · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–0
  3. P2 3:29FLAShawn MatthiasGWGAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Radek Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–0
  4. P2 7:16NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P3 1:05NJDDean McAmmondAssists: Ilkka Pikkarainen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P3 2:23FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Nathan Horton, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P2 1:16NJDBryce Salvador: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 9:12FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 12:52FLAShawn Matthias: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 18:28NJDVladimir Zharkov: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLANJD
22Shots on goal28
1.6Expected goals2.2
31Shot attempts54
22Faceoffs won18
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
18Hits16
15Blocked shots5
1Giveaways2
1Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.2 xGFLA 1.6 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #447 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.12 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.

NJD winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).