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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 11, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CAR25071403319
WSH01421211113440

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:01CARJiri TlustyAssists: Brandon Sutter, Tom Kostopoulos · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:56CAREric StaalAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Aaron Ward · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:07WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:59WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
  5. P3 2:52WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Mathieu Perreault, John Erskine · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:30CARTim GleasonSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. OT 1:16WSHMike GreenGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 8:14CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 16:59WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P3 3:30CARAndrew Alberts: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P3 8:40WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 12:02CARJoni Pitkanen: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Morrison
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARWSH
19Shots on goal40
1.8Expected goals3.5
37Shot attempts85
28Faceoffs won28
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
19Hits11
28Blocked shots13
13Giveaways10
7Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.5 xGCAR 1.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #113 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.22 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).