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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 11, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Edmonton Oilers 5, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

5

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM08115415538
STL11228010330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:14STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:55STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Paul Kariya, Erik Johnson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:35STLDavid BackesAssists: Keith Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
  4. P2 19:49EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
  5. P3 8:31EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Sam Gagner, Dustin Penner · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 11:19EDMSam GagnerAssists: Dustin Penner, Gilbert Brule · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3
  7. P3 13:52EDMShawn HorcoffGWGAssists: Robert Nilsson, Lubomir Visnovsky · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–3
  8. P3 17:03EDMDustin PennerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 3:12EDMJason Strudwick: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 5:53STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 9:40STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 9:40EDMSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 17:53STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P2 2:30STLAndy McDonald: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 6:41EDMRyan Stone: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  8. P2 8:01STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 8:01EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 16:43EDMSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 16:43EDMSheldon Souray: Misconduct10 min
  12. P2 16:43EDMSheldon Souray: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMSTL
38Shots on goal30
2.6Expected goals2.5
55Shot attempts59
40Faceoffs won27
4Power plays3
33Penalty minutes15
16Hits11
20Blocked shots9
2Giveaways7
1Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.5 xGEDM 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #112 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).