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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 11, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Minnesota Wild 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.

CGY winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MIN01901011512246
CGY030101802123

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 5:10CGYAaron JohnsonAssists: Curtis Glencross, Dustin Boyd · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P3 9:30MINJames SheppardAssists: Shane Hnidy, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. OT 3:15MINMartin HavlatGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 7:54CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 12:53MINGuillaume Latendresse: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:21CGYFredrik Sjostrom: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 3:40MINEric Belanger: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 4:19CGYRene Bourque: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 8:01MINDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 8:01CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 9:50CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 10:32CGYRene Bourque: Closing hand on puck2 min
  10. P2 13:17MINChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 11:45MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 11:45CGYRene Bourque: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCGY
46Shots on goal23
3.9Expected goals1.5
72Shot attempts46
35Faceoffs won27
5Power plays3
13Penalty minutes17
10Hits14
17Blocked shots13
5Giveaways14
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.5 xGMIN 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #697 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.40 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.

CGY winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).