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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 11, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Dallas Stars 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Shootout

Home

San Jose Sharks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.

SJS winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL114016113012344
SJS21306012041235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:08DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:00SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:51SJSRob BlakeAssists: Dany Heatley, Manny Malhotra · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P3 10:42DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson, Stephane Robidas · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
  2. 2. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
  3. 3. DAL Brad Richards scored
  4. 4. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
  5. 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
  6. 6. SJS Devin Setoguchi scored
  7. 7. DAL Stephane Robidas stopped
  8. 8. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
  9. 9. DAL James Neal stopped
  10. 10. SJS Dany Heatley stopped
  11. 11. DAL Jere Lehtinen stopped
  12. 12. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
  13. 13. DAL Brenden Morrow stopped
  14. 14. SJS Joe Thornton stopped
  15. 15. DAL Tom Wandell stopped
  16. 16. SJS Manny Malhotra stopped
  17. 17. DAL Mike Modano stopped
  18. 18. SJS Jamie McGinn stopped
  19. 19. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
  20. 20. SJS Torrey Mitchell stopped
  21. 21. DAL Matt Niskanen scored
  22. 22. SJS Marc-Edouard Vlasic stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 5:05DALSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 5:05SJSJay Leach: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 5:05DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 9:30SJSDerek Joslin: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 9:30DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 10:34SJSRob Blake: Interference2 min
  7. P1 11:36SJSKent Huskins: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P1 16:13SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 16:13DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 15:09SJSDerek Joslin: Interference2 min
  11. P2 19:07SJSJamie McGinn: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 7:05SJSRob Blake: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 12:53DALTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALSJS
44Shots on goal35
4.2Expected goals3.3
80Shot attempts64
24Faceoffs won46
5Power plays2
10Penalty minutes16
38Hits29
10Blocked shots16
14Giveaways13
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.3 xGDAL 4.2 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 59/100 · #508 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.81 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 18% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.

SJS winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).