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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Washington Capitals 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6

Away

Washington Capitals

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.

TOR winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH212112013337
TOR08317311636

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:00WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Tomas Fleischmann · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:15WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Milan Jurcina · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 1:29TORMatt StajanAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.26 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:54TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 8:33WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
  6. P2 16:39TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
  7. P3 5:03TORMatt StajanGWGAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
  8. P3 9:44TORLee StempniakSHAssists: Matt Stajan · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–5
  9. P3 19:20TORAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Ian White · Snap, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 0:50TORVesa Toskala: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:15TORJamal Mayers: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 4:21WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:37WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 6:39WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
  6. P3 8:26TORJason Blake: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 19:10WSHMike Green: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Primeau won the faceoff against Backstrom
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHTOR
37Shots on goal36
2.6Expected goals4.7
69Shot attempts64
32Faceoffs won29
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
11Hits17
14Blocked shots18
13Giveaways14
2Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 4.7 xGWSH 2.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #141 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.82 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.

TOR winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).