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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Ottawa Senators 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.

OTT winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR0528012225
OTT110116213439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:48OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Nick Foligno, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:21CARRay WhitneyPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Tuomo Ruutu · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:06OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Chris Phillips, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:05CARRay WhitneyAssists: Eric Staal, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 16:56OTTAlex KovalevPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:31OTTAlex KovalevENAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 17:46OTTMike Fisher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  2. P2 8:25CARTom Kostopoulos: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 14:46CARAaron Ward: Interference2 min
  4. P3 6:58OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 16:17CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CAROTT
25Shots on goal39
2.1Expected goals3.7
46Shot attempts60
19Faceoffs won26
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
35Hits25
10Blocked shots10
9Giveaways9
10Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.7 xGCAR 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #618 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.52 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.

OTT winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).