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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Philadelphia Flyers 1, New Jersey Devils 4

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.

NJD winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI0511206123
NJD3141509428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:33NJDNiclas BergforsPPAssists: Brian Rolston, Martin Brodeur · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:31NJDNiclas BergforsPPGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.42 xG0–2
  3. P1 15:47NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Vladimir Zharkov · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P2 15:03PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:26NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Brian Rolston, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 1:59PHIRyan Parent: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:39PHIDaniel Brière: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 16:02PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 8:42NJDTravis Zajac: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 13:34NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P2 16:07PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 1:52PHIOskars Bartulis: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 6:47PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Hartnell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINJD
23Shots on goal28
1.4Expected goals2.9
40Shot attempts37
33Faceoffs won19
2Power plays6
12Penalty minutes4
12Hits11
5Blocked shots9
0Giveaways12
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.9 xGPHI 1.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #938 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +13 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.

NJD winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).