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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Boston Bruins 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Overtime

Home

New York Islanders

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.

NYI winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS191601700232
NYI17180311319

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:58NYIRob SchrempPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.54 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:23BOSMichael RyderAssists: David Krejci, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:26BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Michael Ryder, Vladimir Sobotka · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P2 14:42NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. OT 0:24NYIFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Blake Comeau, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 3:31BOSVladimir Sobotka: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:01BOSDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 11:22NYIJon Sim: Interference2 min
  4. P3 2:41NYIBruno Gervais: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 8:03NYIFreddy Meyer: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Begin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSNYI
32Shots on goal19
2.3Expected goals1.6
61Shot attempts34
26Faceoffs won21
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
31Hits26
9Blocked shots16
15Giveaways17
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 1.6 xGBOS 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 47/100 · #638 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.52 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.

NYI winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).