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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Montréal Canadiens 3, Atlanta Thrashers 4 (OT)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 73% of the time.

ATL winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MTL110240500319
ATL093160712434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:33MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Jaroslav Spacek · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:44MTLAndrei KostitsynUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:02ATLChristoph SchubertAssists: Pavel Kubina, Colby Armstrong · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:51ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Evander Kane, Christoph Schubert · Snap, 0.33 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:13MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
  6. P2 17:18ATLNik AntropovAssists: Toby Enstrom, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. OT 1:18ATLIlya KovalchukPPGWGAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 2:01ATLEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:45ATLBoris Valabik: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 8:02MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Interference2 min
  4. P1 11:24ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 11:24MTLGeorges Laraque: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 17:51MTLJaroslav Spacek: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 3:11MTLRoman Hamrlik: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 7:52MTLJaroslav Spacek: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 18:14ATLRich Peverley: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 1:16MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 3:40ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 6:13MTLMaxim Lapierre: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  13. P3 9:33MTLMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 9:33ATLZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 19:20MTLGlen Metropolit: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Metropolit won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLATL
19Shots on goal34
1.6Expected goals2.8
34Shot attempts67
23Faceoffs won31
4Power plays7
24Penalty minutes18
7Hits18
21Blocked shots8
6Giveaways11
11Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.8 xGMTL 1.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #60 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.50 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 73% of the time.

ATL winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).