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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Anaheim Ducks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1

Away

Anaheim Ducks

3

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.

CBJ winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA1111816325
CBJ09114013136

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:08ANADan SextonAssists: Saku Koivu, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
  2. P2 19:05ANABobby RyanGWGAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
  3. P2 19:24CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Rick Nash, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
  4. P3 13:47ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Scott Niedermayer · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 0:44CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 9:23CBJJared Boll: Charging2 min
  3. P1 9:23ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 9:23ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 9:23CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 10:51CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 10:51ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 11:01ANASheldon Brookbank: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 4:27ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 5:35ANAPetteri Nokelainen: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 12:56CBJJan Hejda: Tripping2 min · PPG
  12. P3 16:14ANAScott Niedermayer: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACBJ
25Shots on goal36
1.7Expected goals2.1
40Shot attempts57
24Faceoffs won31
2Power plays4
20Penalty minutes16
21Hits27
15Blocked shots11
0Giveaways0
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.1 xGANA 1.7 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #962 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.

CBJ winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).