Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 05 | 115 | 00 | 231 |
| PIT | 114 | 114 | 011 | 11 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25FLASteve ReinprechtPPAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Radek Dvorak · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 13:03PITPascal DupuisAssists: Craig Adams, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:41PITRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Mike Rupp · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 4:39FLAStephen WeissAssists: Bryan McCabe, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 0:37PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:32PITMike Rupp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:51FLAMike Duco: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:51PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:51PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:38FLABryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P2 5:00PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:22FLAMichal Repik: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:30FLABryan McCabe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:23FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:58FLABryan McCabe: Interference2 min
- P3 16:17PITSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
- OT 0:30FLAJordan Leopold: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).