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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

San Jose Sharks 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2

Away

San Jose Sharks

1

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.

PHX winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS010010118138
PHX012212011235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:40PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:15PHXRobert LangGWGAssists: Taylor Pyatt · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P3 14:39SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:01SJSManny Malhotra: Interference2 min
  2. P1 6:37SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 11:54PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 15:03SJSDerek Joslin: Holding2 min
  5. P1 19:13PHXScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 2:16SJSRob Blake: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 10:02SJSFrazer McLaren: Holding2 min
  8. P2 12:36PHXVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 14:17SJSDan Boyle: Holding2 min
  10. P2 16:32SJSKent Huskins: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 13:07SJSThomas Greiss: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
  12. P3 13:25PHXKeith Yandle: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 14:28PHXJim Vandermeer: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Lang
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSPHX
38Shots on goal35
3.6Expected goals3.9
63Shot attempts55
34Faceoffs won32
5Power plays8
16Penalty minutes10
35Hits23
6Blocked shots14
3Giveaways4
3Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.9 xGSJS 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 19/100 · #991 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.

PHX winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).