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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 12, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Minnesota Wild 3, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

3

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.

VAN winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN213018110341
VAN3120819429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:44VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:16VANMason RaymondPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:55MINShane HnidyAssists: Martin Havlat, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:45VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P1 19:55MINGreg ZanonAssists: Martin Havlat, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:44VANRyan KeslerPPGWGAssists: Mathieu Schneider, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:54MINMartin HavlatAssists: Andrew Brunette · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:13MINGuillaume Latendresse: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:03MINDerek Boogaard: Roughing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 8:57VANMathieu Schneider: Boarding2 min
  4. P1 18:33MINGuillaume Latendresse: Interference2 min
  5. P1 19:22VANChristian Ehrhoff: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P2 10:18MINDerek Boogaard: Diving2 min
  7. P2 12:43VANMason Raymond: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 12:43VANMason Raymond: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 5:09MINMartin Havlat: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINVAN
41Shots on goal29
3.1Expected goals2.5
58Shot attempts58
49Faceoffs won20
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
21Hits11
15Blocked shots10
5Giveaways6
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.5 xGMIN 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #566 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.16 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +13 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.

VAN winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).