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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 13, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Chicago Blackhawks 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.

CHI winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL050904018
CHI11127111429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:42CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:42CHIBen EagerAssists: Marian Hossa, Brent Sopel · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 19:44CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
  4. P3 6:01CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.35 xG0–4
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:25CHICam Barker: Interference2 min
  2. P1 10:54TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
  3. P1 11:44TBLMattias Ohlund: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 13:01TBLMatt Smaby: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 1:17CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 5:52CHIDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 7:34CHIDuncan Keith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P2 15:10CHIBen Eager: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 15:10TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 17:01CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 19:17CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 19:17TBLMattias Ohlund: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 9:36TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 16:15TBLMatt Smaby: Hooking2 min
  15. P3 18:39TBLTodd Fedoruk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  16. P3 18:39TBLTodd Fedoruk: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 19:19TBLVictor Hedman: Elbowing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLCHI
18Shots on goal29
1.2Expected goals3.4
34Shot attempts53
24Faceoffs won31
5Power plays7
31Penalty minutes17
26Hits26
15Blocked shots9
4Giveaways4
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.4 xGTBL 1.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHITBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1159 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.

CHI winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).