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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 13, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.

COL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY061817221
COL12021302335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:05COLWojtek WolskiPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Kyle Quincey · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 9:17COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:34CGYRene BourqueAssists: Nigel Dawes · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:19COLDarcy TuckerGWGAssists: TJ Galiardi, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
  5. P3 13:16CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Daymond Langkow, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:52COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:52CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:39CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 11:09CGYAaron Johnson: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  5. P1 12:20CGYCurtis Glencross: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P1 17:08CGYStaffan Kronwall: Holding2 min
  7. P1 17:08COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 17:08CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 1:29COLMatt Hendricks: Holding the stick2 min
  10. P2 6:03COLScott Hannan: Holding2 min
  11. P2 15:15CGYJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 2:33COLMatt Hendricks: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 8:28COLScott Hannan: Cross checking2 min
  14. P3 11:39COLDarcy Tucker: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCOL
21Shots on goal35
2.1Expected goals4.6
54Shot attempts54
27Faceoffs won28
5Power plays6
22Penalty minutes20
21Hits18
10Blocked shots17
6Giveaways5
9Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 4.6 xGCGY 2.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #797 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.19 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.

COL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).