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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 14, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Boston Bruins 1

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI01409315338
BOS0711307127

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 18:32BOSVladimir SobotkaAssists: Shawn Thornton, Steve Begin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P3 2:48PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Arron Asham, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P3 10:28PHIKimmo TimonenGWGAssists: Jon Kalinski, Matt Carle · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:19PHIKimmo TimonenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 6:52BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
  2. P1 7:23PHIBrian Boucher: Delaying game2 min
  3. P1 12:50BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 13:38BOSMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 18:43PHIScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P1 18:43BOSVladimir Sobotka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 9:29PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
  8. P3 0:34BOSMark Recchi: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 18:57PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIBOS
38Shots on goal27
2.6Expected goals2.0
58Shot attempts48
20Faceoffs won29
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes10
32Hits28
12Blocked shots8
3Giveaways4
1Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.0 xGPHI 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #776 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.28 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).