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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 14, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

Atlanta Thrashers 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Rangers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.

NYR winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ATL1601315031327
NYR016119112010248

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:41ATLVyacheslav KozlovPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 17:10NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:06ATLColby ArmstrongSHAssists: Ron Hainsey, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:05NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
  2. 2. ATL Ilya Kovalchuk scored
  3. 3. NYR Ales Kotalik stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 16:27NYRWade Redden: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 12:52ATLEvander Kane: Holding2 min
  3. P2 16:25ATLRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 17:10ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 2:19ATLEric Boulton: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  6. P3 10:11ATLToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
  7. P3 14:03NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 14:37NYRDan Girardi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLNYR
27Shots on goal48
3.2Expected goals4.8
51Shot attempts78
39Faceoffs won35
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
21Hits26
17Blocked shots14
3Giveaways2
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.8 xGATL 3.2 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #318 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.96 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.

NYR winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).