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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 14, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Nashville Predators 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3

Away

Nashville Predators

5

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.

CBJ winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH11531214531
CBJ11119111331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:52NSHSteve SullivanUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:23CBJAntoine VermettePPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kris Russell · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P2 8:27NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: David Legwand · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:52NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:09CBJJakub VoracekPPAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
  6. P2 16:08NSHSteve SullivanGWGAssists: Francis Bouillon, Kevin Klein · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
  7. P3 6:18NSHRyan JonesAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Kevin Klein · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–2
  8. P3 15:53CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 5:07NSHRyan Jones: Holding2 min
  2. P1 6:12CBJAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 14:29NSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 1:31NSHSteve Sullivan: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 2:18NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 5:02CBJMike Commodore: Interference2 min
  7. P2 10:35NSHJason Arnott: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:00NSHJ-P Dumont: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 16:02CBJRick Nash: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 18:52NSHDan Hamhuis: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 10:48NSHRyan Jones: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 19:20CBJDerick Brassard: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Umberger won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCBJ
31Shots on goal31
2.8Expected goals3.1
49Shot attempts62
22Faceoffs won37
4Power plays8
16Penalty minutes8
11Hits9
17Blocked shots7
1Giveaways4
3Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 3.1 xGNSH 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #336 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.54 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.

CBJ winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).