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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 14, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Buffalo Sabres 4, Montréal Canadiens 3

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.

MTL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF0921127427
MTL1905210324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:03MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:58BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Derek Roy, Jochen Hecht · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 19:01BUFPatrick KaletaSHAssists: Tim Connolly · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P3 2:36MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–2
  5. P3 12:33BUFTim KennedyAssists: Jochen Hecht, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P3 12:51MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. P3 14:41BUFClarke MacArthurPPGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 3:18MTLRyan O'Byrne: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:44BUFCraig Rivet: Roughing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 18:03MTLGlen Metropolit: Holding2 min
  4. P2 0:03BUFAdam Mair: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 0:03MTLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 10:55MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
  7. P2 13:23MTLScott Gomez: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 17:48BUFSteve Montador: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 2:26BUFAdam Mair: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  10. P3 12:57MTLGlen Metropolit: Roughing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 12:57BUFDerek Roy: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 12:57MTLGlen Metropolit: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 13:34MTLRyan O'Byrne: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 18:00BUFToni Lydman: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFMTL
27Shots on goal24
3.2Expected goals1.9
73Shot attempts50
20Faceoffs won39
6Power plays4
15Penalty minutes19
10Hits13
16Blocked shots30
9Giveaways14
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 1.9 xGBUF 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #82 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.52 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.

MTL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).