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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 15, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 6

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI190909127
PIT39116210635

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:30PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:09PITBill GuerinGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
  3. P1 11:46PHIDaniel CarcilloPPAssists: Mike Richards, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P1 14:51PITJordan StaalSHAssists: Matt Cooke, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:45PITJordan StaalAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:17PITRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Eric Godard · Slap, 0.06 xG1–5
  7. P3 18:39PITEvgeni MalkinSHAssists: Jay McKee · Snap, 0.04 xG1–6
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 2:12PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:17PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:17PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 5:23PHIRiley Cote: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 5:23PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 5:33PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 5:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 11:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P1 14:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
  10. P2 1:34PITRuslan Fedotenko: Interference2 min
  11. P2 9:59PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
  12. P2 17:41PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 0:51PITRuslan Fedotenko: Boarding2 min
  14. P3 4:30PHIScott Hartnell: Holding the stick2 min
  15. P3 13:06PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
  16. P3 16:43PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIPIT
27Shots on goal35
1.9Expected goals3.0
54Shot attempts55
37Faceoffs won25
6Power plays4
23Penalty minutes27
25Hits20
11Blocked shots13
4Giveaways3
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.0 xGPHI 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #923 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.77 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).