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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 15, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Calgary Flames 3, St. Louis Blues 4

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.

STL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY1721204323
STL29115110434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:56STLDavid BackesAssists: Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:16CGYRene BourqueAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:51STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Brad Boyes, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:13CGYDaymond LangkowPPAssists: Rene Bourque, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
  5. P2 10:25CGYDustin BoydAssists: Aaron Johnson, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P2 17:23STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. P3 15:02STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Paul Kariya, David Backes · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:16STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:16CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:04CGYDustin Boyd: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 10:07CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 1:07STLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 5:04STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
  7. P2 14:46CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 16:30CGYDustin Boyd: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 19:32STLB.J. Crombeen: Holding2 min
  10. P3 5:00CGYJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 18:52STLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYSTL
23Shots on goal34
2.2Expected goals2.6
46Shot attempts61
26Faceoffs won33
4Power plays5
15Penalty minutes13
22Hits21
13Blocked shots15
3Giveaways6
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.6 xGCGY 2.2 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #253 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.00 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.

STL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).