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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 15, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 7

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.

NSH winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL21301229434
NSH16510111727

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:53NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: David Legwand, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:35TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Malone, Mattias Ohlund · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:30TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 1:12NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
  5. P2 2:57NSHRyan JonesAssists: Nick Spaling, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.44 xG2–3
  6. P2 12:22NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Marcel Goc · Slap, 0.12 xG2–4
  7. P2 12:50NSHJ-P DumontGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–5
  8. P2 16:09NSHDan HamhuisAssists: Ryan Suter, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
  9. P3 1:52TBLKurtis FosterPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.04 xG3–6
  10. P3 12:20TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Andrej Meszaros · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–6
  11. P3 13:47NSHMartin EratAssists: Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–7
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 14:30NSHJerred Smithson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 16:04NSHRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 4:32TBLMatt Walker: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 6:17NSHJason Arnott: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 13:39NSHShea Weber: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 13:39TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 18:10NSHKevin Klein: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P2 18:10TBLStephane Veilleux: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 0:53NSHJerred Smithson: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 0:53TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 0:53NSHJerred Smithson: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 5:46TBLVictor Hedman: Boarding2 min
  13. P3 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLNSH
34Shots on goal27
2.8Expected goals3.6
57Shot attempts54
35Faceoffs won26
4Power plays2
21Penalty minutes23
21Hits17
16Blocked shots10
8Giveaways18
6Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.6 xGTBL 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #148 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.

NSH winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).