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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 15, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Washington Capitals 6, Colorado Avalanche 1

Away

Washington Capitals

6

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.

COL winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH2831314625
COL06012110128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:56WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Eric Fehr, Kyle Wilson · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:03WSHMike KnubleGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:02WSHDavid SteckelAssists: Matt Bradley, Chris Clark · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
  4. P2 10:33WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Kyle Wilson · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
  5. P2 13:22WSHMatt BradleyAssists: John Erskine, Chris Clark · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–0
  6. P3 11:21COLTJ GaliardiPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–1
  7. P3 17:24WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Eric Fehr, Tom Poti · Wrist, 0.22 xG6–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 14:45WSHBrooks Laich: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 18:23WSHEric Fehr: Holding2 min
  3. P2 15:28COLDavid Koci: Boarding5 min
  4. P2 15:28COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 15:28COLDavid Koci: Game misconduct10 min
  6. P2 15:28WSHJohn Erskine: Instigator2 min
  7. P2 15:28WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 15:28WSHJohn Erskine: Misconduct10 min
  9. P3 5:53WSHTom Poti: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 10:22WSHAlexander Semin: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 11:21WSHJeff Schultz: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 16:53COLAdam Foote: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against O'Reilly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHCOL
25Shots on goal28
2.6Expected goals2.4
40Shot attempts47
17Faceoffs won25
2Power plays5
27Penalty minutes22
10Hits24
11Blocked shots6
1Giveaways9
8Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.4 xGWSH 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1047 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.

COL winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).