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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 15, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Los Angeles Kings 3, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Los Angeles Kings

3

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.

EDM winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK1111718326
EDM09110110229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:29LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:44LAKDustin BrownAssists: Brad Richardson, Michal Handzus · Snap, 0.23 xG2–0
  3. P2 12:17EDMSheldon SourayAssists: Ryan Potulny · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 3:43EDMRyan PotulnyAssists: Sheldon Souray, Tom Gilbert · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:27LAKSean O'DonnellGWGAssists: Alex Frolov, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 7:33EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
  2. P2 7:33LAKRaitis Ivanans: Instigator2 min
  3. P2 7:33LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 7:33LAKRaitis Ivanans: Misconduct10 min
  5. P3 16:13LAKMatt Greene: Holding2 min
  6. P3 16:48EDMShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Potulny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKEDM
26Shots on goal29
1.6Expected goals2.9
40Shot attempts60
21Faceoffs won25
1Power plays3
19Penalty minutes7
23Hits21
14Blocked shots8
14Giveaways17
7Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.9 xGLAK 1.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #419 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.53 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.

EDM winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).