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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 16, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Montréal Canadiens 1, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Montréal Canadiens

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.

NJD winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL170803118
NJD0819110227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:23MTLTravis MoenSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 16:25NJDIlkka PikkarainenAssists: Dean McAmmond, Rod Pelley · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 17:24NJDPatrik EliasGWGAssists: Brian Rolston, Vladimir Zharkov · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 7:03MTLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 8:02MTLRyan O'Byrne: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 11:53MTLHal Gill: Holding2 min
  4. P1 18:08MTLCarey Price: Delaying game2 min
  5. P2 4:04MTLJaroslav Spacek: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 5:52NJDRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Niedermayer
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLNJD
18Shots on goal27
0.9Expected goals2.1
32Shot attempts43
23Faceoffs won36
1Power plays5
10Penalty minutes2
17Hits12
11Blocked shots12
9Giveaways18
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.1 xGMTL 0.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #854 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.

NJD winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).