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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 16, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 1

Away

New York Islanders

2

Final

Home

New York Rangers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.

NYR winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI11001018228
NYR03012111126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:25NYIJon SimAssists: Jack Hillen, Richard Park · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P3 16:50NYIBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Brendan Witt · Snap, 0.35 xG2–0
  3. P3 19:05NYREnver LisinAssists: Dan Girardi, Brandon Dubinsky · Tip-in, 0.42 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 8:40NYRMarian Gaborik: Delaying game2 min
  2. P2 0:27NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 0:27NYIJack Hillen: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 2:37NYRVinny Prospal: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 6:04NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 6:04NYIDwayne Roloson: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 6:04NYIDwayne Roloson: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 18:49NYIJosh Bailey: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYINYR
28Shots on goal26
3.8Expected goals3.6
53Shot attempts73
20Faceoffs won31
2Power plays2
8Penalty minutes8
26Hits27
28Blocked shots7
2Giveaways5
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.6 xGNYI 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 12/100 · #1075 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.79 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.

NYR winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).