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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 16, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Dallas Stars 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.

CAR winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL11011215327
CAR31404211529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:48CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Bryan Rodney, Cam Ward · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:32CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Eric Staal, Joni Pitkanen · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:35CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Bryan Rodney · Snap, 0.24 xG0–3
  4. P1 15:09DALSteve OttPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
  5. P2 8:32DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Jere Lehtinen, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:47CARTuomo RuutuGWGAssists: Brett Carson, Joni Pitkanen · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:56DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Mike Modano, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:54CARTuomo RuutuENAssists: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:49DALLoui Eriksson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:09DALTom Wandell: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 14:53CARJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 16:08DALMike Modano: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 2:00CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 7:28CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 10:50DALNicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 19:34DALMike Modano: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCAR
27Shots on goal29
2.7Expected goals3.1
51Shot attempts50
33Faceoffs won27
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
32Hits29
13Blocked shots13
4Giveaways6
6Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.1 xGDAL 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #265 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.07 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.

CAR winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).