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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 16, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Phoenix Coyotes 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

6

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 78% of the time.

TOR winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX11141018629
TOR0927114330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:33PHXPetr PruchaPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:51PHXPetr PruchaAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
  3. P2 1:51TORJamal MayersAssists: Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:10PHXVernon FiddlerAssists: Daniel Winnik, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:39PHXPaul BissonnetteGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.03 xG4–1
  6. P2 16:25PHXScottie UpshallUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG5–1
  7. P2 19:10TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Matt Stajan, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
  8. P3 9:05TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Matt Stajan, Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
  9. P3 19:48PHXRadim VrbataENAssists: Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.64 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 6:39PHXSami Lepisto: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 11:47TORJason Blake: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 12:46PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
  4. P2 18:36PHXTaylor Pyatt: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P3 1:52TORColton Orr: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 2:17PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
  7. P3 3:49PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Grabovski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXTOR
29Shots on goal30
3.4Expected goals1.8
54Shot attempts75
28Faceoffs won28
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
15Hits21
26Blocked shots12
11Giveaways9
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 1.8 xGPHX 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #263 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 78% of the time.

TOR winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).