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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 16, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.

FLA winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL081827323
FLA21311115429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:42FLAStephen WeissAssists: Nathan Horton, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:19FLARadek DvorakAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Rostislav Olesz · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:54FLABryan McCabeAssists: Victor Oreskovich, Shawn Matthias · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P2 17:52ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Toby Enstrom, Pavel Kubina · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P3 1:59ATLNik AntropovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Bryan Little · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:27ATLVyacheslav KozlovAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Pavel Kubina · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. P3 18:39FLAMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Stephen Weiss, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 1:41FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:12ATLChristoph Schubert: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 14:36ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 19:01ATLNik Antropov: Interference2 min
  5. P3 8:44FLAStephen Weiss: Holding2 min
  6. P3 9:50ATLNik Antropov: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Reinprecht
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLFLA
23Shots on goal29
1.4Expected goals2.5
53Shot attempts45
29Faceoffs won28
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
22Hits17
9Blocked shots20
3Giveaways1
3Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.5 xGATL 1.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #147 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 7 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +44 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.

FLA winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).