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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 16, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Anaheim Ducks 3, Vancouver Canucks 2

Away

Anaheim Ducks

3

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA113111110334
VAN12011117230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:48ANABobby RyanAssists: Saku Koivu, Dan Sexton · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:07VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:55ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P3 2:03VANSteve BernierAssists: Tanner Glass, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:47ANASaku KoivuPPGWGAssists: Kyle Calder, Dan Sexton · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 2:28VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 7:00VANRyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:44ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 19:58VANChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
  5. P2 0:36ANARyan Getzlaf: Boarding2 min
  6. P2 4:53ANANick Boynton: Interference2 min
  7. P2 7:53ANABrett Festerling: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 10:58ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 10:58VANShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 13:07ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 13:07VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 14:01ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 17:31ANARyan Whitney: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  14. P2 17:31VANMikael Samuelsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  15. P3 14:22VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAVAN
34Shots on goal30
2.6Expected goals3.0
50Shot attempts56
26Faceoffs won30
4Power plays5
22Penalty minutes20
17Hits23
11Blocked shots9
7Giveaways6
9Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.0 xGANA 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #470 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.84 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).