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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Minnesota Wild 3, Montréal Canadiens 1

Away

Minnesota Wild

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.

MTL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN2110713321
MTL17012012131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:41MINRobbie EarlAssists: Kim Johnsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 3:26MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Scott Gomez · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:08MINMikko KoivuPPGWGAssists: Martin Havlat, Andrew Brunette · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P3 11:47MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 12:10MTLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P3 2:08MINJames Sheppard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P3 18:40MINKim Johnsson: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Metropolit won the faceoff against Belanger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINMTL
21Shots on goal31
3.2Expected goals2.4
42Shot attempts64
20Faceoffs won26
1Power plays2
4Penalty minutes2
26Hits12
18Blocked shots10
25Giveaways20
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.4 xGMIN 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1000 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.91 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.

MTL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).