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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

New York Rangers 5, New York Islanders 2

Away

New York Rangers

5

Final

Home

New York Islanders

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.

NYI winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR2411226522
NYI01411419237

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:06NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Vinny Prospal · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:56NYRChris DruryAssists: Sean Avery, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
  3. P2 0:27NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–0
  4. P2 9:31NYIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Mark Streit, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P3 3:37NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Ryan Callahan · Slap, 0.01 xG4–1
  6. P3 6:50NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–1
  7. P3 15:14NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Andy Sutton, Blake Comeau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 2:07NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 5:51NYRBobby Sanguinetti: Holding2 min
  3. P1 6:44NYIJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 12:41NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P1 14:03NYRVinny Prospal: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P1 18:55NYIAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 3:03NYRDonald Brashear: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 7:46NYIJosh Bailey: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P2 9:25NYRChris Higgins: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 15:07NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
  11. P2 15:07NYIBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 2:02NYIFreddy Meyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  13. P3 3:12NYIBrendan Witt: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 3:12NYIBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 3:12NYIFrans Nielsen: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 3:12NYRMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 3:12NYRMichal Rozsival: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 9:41NYREnver Lisin: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRNYI
22Shots on goal37
2.9Expected goals4.1
44Shot attempts71
29Faceoffs won18
6Power plays7
20Penalty minutes18
34Hits22
17Blocked shots13
8Giveaways13
16Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 4.1 xGNYR 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYINYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #714 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.91 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.

NYI winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).