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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.

PHI winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT1141808002330
PHI11119011020233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:15PHIJeff CarterAssists: Matt Carle, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:48PITBill GuerinPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:04PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:17PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
  2. 2. PIT Kris Letang scored
  3. 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
  4. 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 3:01PHIDaniel Carcillo: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:45PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:45PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 7:36PITTyler Kennedy: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 12:43PHIJeff Carter: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 1:51PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 5:09PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 6:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 8:00PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P2 9:42PHIJeff Carter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 10:11PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 10:11PHIRyan Parent: High sticking2 min
  13. OT 0:27PITBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
  14. OT 0:27PHIDaniel Carcillo: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITPHI
30Shots on goal33
2.1Expected goals3.6
55Shot attempts66
30Faceoffs won32
5Power plays3
15Penalty minutes19
19Hits26
19Blocked shots14
7Giveaways12
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.6 xGPIT 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #730 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.39 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.

PHI winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).