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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Dallas Stars 5, Atlanta Thrashers 6 (OT)

Away

Dallas Stars

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.

ATL winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
DAL21711621400547
ATL16292900624

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:12DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Mike Modano, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:30ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Todd White · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:14DALJere LehtinenSHAssists: Steve Ott, Mark Fistric · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:47ATLJim SlaterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
  5. P2 12:35ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
  6. P2 18:02DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
  7. P3 4:43DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Mike Modano, Nicklas Grossmann · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
  8. P3 8:27ATLMaxim AfinogenovPPAssists: Bryan Little, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
  9. P3 12:46ATLRich PeverleySHAssists: Colby Armstrong, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
  10. P3 18:48DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Stephane Robidas · Deflected, 0.11 xG5–5
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 1:25ATLAnssi Salmela: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:46DALJere Lehtinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:15ATLColby Armstrong: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 14:44DALKrys Barch: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 10:59DALBrad Richards: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P3 2:53ATLMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P3 6:58DALMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 11:07ATLChristoph Schubert: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against White
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALATL
47Shots on goal24
3.4Expected goals1.9
71Shot attempts46
32Faceoffs won35
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
13Hits18
15Blocked shots17
2Giveaways4
9Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.9 xGDAL 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #9 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.51 · 10 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.

ATL winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).