Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Detroit Red Wings 3

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

0

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.

DET winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL01001009029
DET190825322

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:24DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Brian Rafalski · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P3 6:48DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P3 10:10DETPatrick EavesAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 11:50TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 11:50DETBrad May: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 18:17DETPatrick Eaves: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 3:27TBLRyan Malone: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 3:58DETVille Leino: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 7:04DETDoug Janik: Interference2 min
  7. P2 15:28DETTodd Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 2:46DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 9:24TBLMattias Ohlund: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 9:24DETKirk Maltby: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 16:43TBLRyan Malone: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLDET
29Shots on goal22
1.9Expected goals1.8
57Shot attempts36
24Faceoffs won22
5Power plays2
11Penalty minutes17
30Hits29
7Blocked shots11
6Giveaways5
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 1.8 xGTBL 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 7/100 · #1148 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.65 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.

DET winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).