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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Los Angeles Kings

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.

CGY winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK08011116135
CGY11001113224

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:59CGYDion PhaneufPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P3 1:02CGYNigel DawesGWGAssists: Daymond Langkow, Rene Bourque · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P3 11:06LAKCorey ElkinsAssists: Oscar Moller, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 3:54LAKDavis Drewiske: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 8:01CGYDion Phaneuf: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 14:53CGYAaron Johnson: Interference2 min
  4. P1 18:36LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 13:56LAKRaitis Ivanans: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 12:19CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
  7. P3 16:07LAKJustin Williams: Interference2 min
  8. P3 18:38LAKJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 19:00CGYJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKCGY
35Shots on goal24
2.5Expected goals1.5
59Shot attempts48
28Faceoffs won26
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
10Hits26
16Blocked shots14
15Giveaways14
3Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.5 xGLAK 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1003 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.93 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.

CGY winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).