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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Nashville Predators 6, Edmonton Oilers 3

Away

Nashville Predators

6

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.

EDM winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH3162615627
EDM21016010326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:05EDMRobert NilssonPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Jeff Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:01EDMLubomir VisnovskyAssists: Gilbert Brule, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:13NSHRyan JonesAssists: Wade Belak · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:09NSHJoel WardAssists: David Legwand, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P1 16:59NSHMarcel GocAssists: J-P Dumont, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
  6. P2 8:18NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Jason Arnott, J-P Dumont · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
  7. P2 14:10EDMRobert NilssonPPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
  8. P2 19:56NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–3
  9. P3 19:16NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: David Legwand, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:27NSHCody Franson: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P2 5:00NSHJerred Smithson: Holding2 min
  3. P2 9:53EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
  4. P2 11:52NSHJ-P Dumont: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 13:34NSHShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  6. P2 19:03EDMDustin Penner: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P3 3:04EDMSteve Staios: Holding2 min
  8. P3 7:32NSHJ-P Dumont: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Stone
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHEDM
27Shots on goal26
2.5Expected goals3.0
51Shot attempts52
30Faceoffs won27
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
14Hits14
11Blocked shots12
19Giveaways16
12Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.0 xGNSH 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #186 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.54 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.

EDM winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).