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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 18, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 4

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.

NJD winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT01021009229
NJD1112813422

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:53NJDJamie LangenbrunnerPPAssists: Andy Greene, Martin Brodeur · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:39OTTAlexandre PicardAssists: Matt Carkner, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 1:53NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Mark Fraser, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:06OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Kelly, Jonathan Cheechoo · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:22NJDJay PandolfoGWGAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Colin White · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:52NJDBryce SalvadorAssists: Rod Pelley, Dean McAmmond · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:43NJDNiclas Bergfors: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:09OTTAlexandre Picard: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P1 17:21NJDMike Mottau: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 10:19NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 14:16OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 14:30NJDRob Niedermayer: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 13:43NJDDean McAmmond: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 14:22NJDJamie Langenbrunner: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 14:22OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 14:22NJDJamie Langenbrunner: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 17:40OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Niedermayer
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTNJD
29Shots on goal22
2.5Expected goals1.9
51Shot attempts34
19Faceoffs won19
6Power plays3
8Penalty minutes14
27Hits36
7Blocked shots10
8Giveaways9
8Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.9 xGOTT 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #661 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.33 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.

NJD winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).