Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 18, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Carolina Hurricanes 3, Florida Panthers 6

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.

FLA winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR09114212335
FLA01031137628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:27CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Bryan Rodney, Andrew Alberts · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:29FLAJordan LeopoldAssists: Rostislav Olesz · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:25FLABryan McCabeAssists: Radek Dvorak, Rostislav Olesz · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:05FLAKeith BallardAssists: Nathan Horton, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P3 4:10FLARostislav OleszGWGAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
  6. P3 4:47FLARadek DvorakAssists: Dominic Moore, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
  7. P3 7:57FLADominic MooreSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–6
  8. P3 8:19CARScott WalkerAssists: Andrew Alberts, Manny Legace · Slap, 0.02 xG2–6
  9. P3 10:21CAREric StaalAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 5:21FLAMichael Frolik: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 5:53CARBrandon Sutter: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 10:14CARMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 15:40CARRay Whitney: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 6:11FLAVictor Oreskovich: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 18:53CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARFLA
35Shots on goal28
2.1Expected goals2.4
56Shot attempts42
36Faceoffs won38
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
25Hits25
5Blocked shots13
1Giveaways6
2Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.4 xGCAR 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLACAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #364 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.

FLA winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).