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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 18, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Tampa Bay Lightning 6, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

6

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.

STL winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL1521336624
STL1110827326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:04STLBrad WinchesterPPAssists: David Backes, Paul Kariya · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:37TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Alex Tanguay, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:36TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Kurtis Foster, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:24TBLKurtis FosterAssists: Victor Hedman, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P3 3:58STLT.J. OshieAssists: Paul Kariya, David Backes · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P3 4:12TBLJeff HalpernGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
  7. P3 9:03STLKeith TkachukPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Andy McDonald · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
  8. P3 11:15TBLJeff HalpernAssists: Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
  9. P3 19:02TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.70 xG6–3
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 8:15TBLMattias Ohlund: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:36TBLJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 18:32STLCam Janssen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P1 18:57TBLVincent Lecavalier: Elbowing2 min
  5. P1 19:53STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 2:17TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 4:52STLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
  8. P2 4:52TBLStephane Veilleux: Holding2 min
  9. P2 7:19STLCam Janssen: Holding2 min
  10. P2 10:03STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 10:03STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Instigator2 min
  12. P2 10:03STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Misconduct10 min
  13. P2 10:03TBLBlair Jones: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 13:45TBLMartin St. Louis: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 8:38TBLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLSTL
24Shots on goal26
2.8Expected goals3.0
43Shot attempts54
30Faceoffs won23
4Power plays5
19Penalty minutes25
11Hits24
10Blocked shots10
4Giveaways10
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 3.0 xGTBL 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #232 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.

STL winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).