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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 18, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Washington Capitals 2, Vancouver Canucks 3

Away

Washington Capitals

2

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH2110808227
VAN171617320

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:39VANRyan KeslerAssists: Jannik Hansen · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:47WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:06WSHChris ClarkAssists: Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P2 17:39VANMason RaymondAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:56VANMason RaymondPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 10:54WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
  2. P1 15:25VANRick Rypien: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 7:40VANRyan Johnson: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 10:03VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 7:51VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 12:24WSHTom Poti: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 12:24WSHTom Poti: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Morrison
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHVAN
27Shots on goal20
2.4Expected goals2.0
60Shot attempts44
29Faceoffs won27
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
12Hits17
12Blocked shots17
3Giveaways6
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.0 xGWSH 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #601 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.63 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).