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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New York Rangers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Away

New York Rangers

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.

PHI winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR1911005224
PHI19012016137

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:16NYRChris DruryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:13PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:46NYRArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 7:45NYREnver Lisin: Boarding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 13:51NYRErik Christensen: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 19:39NYRArtem Anisimov: Interference2 min
  4. P2 1:54NYRVinny Prospal: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 11:39PHIMike Richards: Holding2 min
  6. P2 14:17PHISimon Gagne: Interference2 min
  7. P3 19:40NYRMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Betts won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRPHI
24Shots on goal37
2.1Expected goals3.9
50Shot attempts59
23Faceoffs won26
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
21Hits15
12Blocked shots12
5Giveaways6
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.9 xGNYR 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #969 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.06 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.

PHI winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).