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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Detroit Red Wings 3, Dallas Stars 4

Away

Detroit Red Wings

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.

DAL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET11121309333
DAL073717421

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:22DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:40DALKarlis SkrastinsAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:14DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:39DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Nicklas Lidstrom · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:45DALJames NealAssists: Karlis Skrastins, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:00DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Drew Miller · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. P3 1:16DALKarlis SkrastinsGWGAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 0:57DETKris Draper: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 10:16DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:16DETBrad May: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 11:49DALJames Neal: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 4:44DETDarren Helm: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 19:33DALBrad Richards: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Modano won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETDAL
33Shots on goal21
3.3Expected goals1.3
63Shot attempts33
31Faceoffs won19
2Power plays2
9Penalty minutes9
38Hits41
8Blocked shots14
6Giveaways13
8Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 1.3 xGDET 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #297 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.

DAL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).