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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.

BUF winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT1508010011224
BUF19011011010132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:05BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:21PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
  2. 2. PIT Kris Letang scored
  3. 3. BUF Derek Roy stopped
  4. 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
  5. 5. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:17BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 7:37PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
  3. P1 8:32PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 4:38BUFCraig Rivet: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 8:50PITJay McKee: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 14:09BUFTim Kennedy: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 1:49PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 3:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
  9. P3 6:44BUFJochen Hecht: Holding2 min
  10. P3 10:14PITBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
  11. P3 15:21BUFClarke MacArthur: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 17:54PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
  13. OT 1:43PITAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITBUF
24Shots on goal32
3.7Expected goals4.3
63Shot attempts65
26Faceoffs won34
5Power plays8
16Penalty minutes10
15Hits23
16Blocked shots20
16Giveaways13
3Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 4.3 xGPIT 3.7 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 56/100 · #539 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.70 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.

BUF winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).