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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Boston Bruins 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

Boston Bruins

0

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.

TOR winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS0120805025
TOR0817116231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:24TORTomas KaberleGWGAssists: Mike Komisarek, Jamal Mayers · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P3 9:43TORJason BlakeAssists: Niklas Hagman, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 2:48BOSBlake Wheeler: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P2 12:10TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 12:32BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 14:41BOSZdeno Chara: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P3 5:00TORMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 13:16TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 14:39BOSMichael Ryder: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 16:02BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Mayers
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSTOR
25Shots on goal31
2.6Expected goals2.5
56Shot attempts66
28Faceoffs won32
3Power plays6
12Penalty minutes6
16Hits13
19Blocked shots21
14Giveaways17
12Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.5 xGBOS 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 1/100 · #1217 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.

TOR winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).