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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Minnesota Wild 1, Ottawa Senators 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.

OTT winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN090519123
OTT1621018424

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:05OTTAnton VolchenkovAssists: Mike Fisher, Peter Regin · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:24OTTMilan MichalekGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jesse Winchester · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 17:50OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Kelly, Jonathan Cheechoo · Snap, 0.36 xG0–3
  4. P3 2:55OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Alex Kovalev, Peter Regin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
  5. P3 4:40MINMartin HavlatAssists: Nick Schultz, Clayton Stoner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 4:08OTTAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
  2. P1 10:49OTTMatt Carkner: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:41OTTAlex Kovalev: Elbowing2 min
  4. P2 1:03MINMartin Havlat: Interference2 min
  5. P2 4:54MINShane Hnidy: Holding2 min
  6. P2 6:55MINAndrew Ebbett: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 13:16OTTJesse Winchester: Holding2 min
  8. P3 0:12OTTDaniel Alfredsson: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 7:42OTTFilip Kuba: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Ebbett
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINOTT
23Shots on goal24
1.5Expected goals1.5
45Shot attempts46
24Faceoffs won23
6Power plays3
6Penalty minutes12
23Hits18
13Blocked shots12
10Giveaways11
7Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 1.5 xGMIN 1.5 xG
00.511.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1040 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.

OTT winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).