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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 0

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Home

New York Islanders

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.

NYI winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL16111111328
NYI014012014040

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:44MTLAndrei MarkovPPGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.51 xG1–0
  2. P2 13:12MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P3 14:00MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 6:54NYIJack Hillen: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:50NYIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 4:01MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
  4. P2 7:51MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
  5. P2 13:02NYIMark Streit: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 18:13MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 0:36MTLTravis Moen: High sticking double minor4 min
  8. P3 10:32NYIJesse Joensuu: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 10:32MTLGlen Metropolit: Interference2 min
  10. P3 13:02NYIRob Schremp: Hooking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 16:01NYIJack Hillen: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 19:57MTLMaxim Lapierre: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Metropolit
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLNYI
28Shots on goal40
3.7Expected goals3.4
58Shot attempts75
39Faceoffs won28
5Power plays6
14Penalty minutes12
18Hits19
24Blocked shots12
15Giveaways14
8Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.4 xGMTL 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1122 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.

NYI winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).