Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0601628230
CAR2811303324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:28CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Matt Cullen, Ray Whitney · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:47CARMatt CullenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:27CARSergei SamsonovGWGAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P3 2:17FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jordan Leopold, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
  5. P3 12:39FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Michael Frolik, Steve Reinprecht · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:16FLAGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:16CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 14:31CARStephane Yelle: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 18:30CARAndrew Alberts: Holding2 min
  5. P3 2:44FLAJeff Taffe: Interference2 min
  6. P3 7:03FLAStephen Weiss: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 8:52CARTuomo Ruutu: Holding2 min
  8. P3 11:17CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 11:43CARStephane Yelle: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Reinprecht
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACAR
30Shots on goal24
2.7Expected goals2.1
53Shot attempts56
25Faceoffs won31
5Power plays2
9Penalty minutes15
33Hits26
19Blocked shots15
4Giveaways7
8Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.1 xGFLA 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #486 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).